Oh, what a mess we have on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

Is Bodemeister a monster or a horse that took advantage of a soft pace in Arkansas? Is Union Rags nothing more than a troubled third in the Florida Derby or a contender with holes in his resume and can't live up to his hype or is he sitting on a huge race and as good as many experts think? Gemologist is unbeaten, but how good is he? Can Take Charge Indy, Dullahan or I'll Have Another use big prep wins to move forward and win the most precious jewel in the Triple Crown? Do you still like talented thoroughbreds like Alpha and Creative Cause?

So many questions, so few answers right now. 

Of the 20 3-year olds that have earned enough graded stakes earnings to start in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, it could be argued that more than half the field has a legitimate chance to wear the roses. That should be reflected in the odds, which will benefit the sharpest railbrids who can pick a winning trifecta or superfecta ticket.

This is the deepest, most talented field in years at the Derby.

Good luck picking a winner. Stay tuned for more analysis, especially after the post position draw on May 2.

It's closing in on post time for the Kentucky Derby and settling on a winner has never been more difficult.

That's the beauty of this sport and of the art of handicapping.

- BTilton@News-Herald.com