Wednesday, December 7, 2011

It's looking like an RG3 Heisman runaway

The website has been forecasting the Heisman Trophy since USC's Carson Palmer won the award in 2002.

That year, the site correctly predicted Palmer would win the most famous award in sports.'s methodology is simple. Listed on its website, it is (word for word):

- We count actual votes. We count only the picks from people who claim to be actual voters.

- We make two assumptions: 1. That the voter turnout in each region will be equal, and 2. that the undisclosed votes in each region will mirror the publicly disclosed votes.

- Based on those assumptions, we total up the votes in each region, and then extrapolate the totals.

- We continually update as more information comes in.

The site says when 20 to 25 percent of the votes have been counted, they are confident with its prediction. As of Wednesday afternoon, the site reported the results of 189 ballots. There are 926 Heisman voters. That's a little over 20 percent of the votes.

So far, Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III has a huge lead over Stanford's Andrew Luck. Griffin III's projected total is 2,244 votes, and Luck's 1,262. None of the other finalists are within striking distance of Griffin III, nicknamed RG3, or Luck.

Barring a late surge by Luck, it appears - as Griffin said to ABC after his team's win over Texas last Saturday - "Baylor just won its first Heisman."

- Mark Podolski | @mpodo

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