Friday, March 15, 2013

How seeds have fared in the NCAA tournament since 2006

The field for the NCAA tournament is so open this year that picking games based on mascot fierceness or medical-school ranking might be as attractive as ever.

With that in mind, I went through the brackets from 2006-12 hoping to find some patterns. Why 2006? 1) That was the first year since the field expanded to 64 that all heck broke loose, with George Mason making it to the Final Four; 2) it was the first year under the NBA's age minimum, aka the one-and-done rule.

Much like filling out a bracket is more fun with pen-and-paper than pull-down menus on a website, I went old school and busted out a yellow legal pad.

FINAL FOUR AND CHAMPIONSHIP
Between 2006-12, of the 28 teams in the Final Four...
10 were No. 1 seeds
7 were No. 2 seeds
3 were No. 3 seeds
3 were No. 4 seeds
2 were No. 5 seeds
1 was a No. 8 seed
2 were No. 11 seeds

Of the 14 teams in the championship game...
7 were No. 1 seeds
3 were No. 2 seeds
2 were No. 3 seeds
1 was a No. 5 seed
1 was a No. 8 seed

HOW SEEDS HAVE FARED, 2006-12
In the round of 64
No. 1 seeds: 28-0
No. 2: 26-2
No. 3: 26-2
No. 4: 21-7
No. 5: 17-11
No. 6: 15-13
No. 7: 16-12
No. 8: 16-12
No. 9: 12-16
No. 10: 12-16
No. 11: 13-15
No. 12: 11-17
No. 13: 7-21
No. 14: 2-26
No. 15: 2-26
No. 16: 0-28

In the round of 32
No. 1 seeds: 26-2
No. 2: 19-7
No. 3: 18-8
No. 4: 12-9
No. 5: 9-8
No. 6: 5-10
No. 7: 5-11
No. 8: 1-15
No. 9: 1-11
No. 10: 4-8
No. 11: 5-8
No. 12: 5-6
No. 13: 2-5
No. 14: 0-2
No. 15: 0-2

In the Sweet 16
No. 1 seeds: 21-5
No. 2: 14-5
No. 3: 9-9
No. 4: 3-9
No. 5: 3-6
No. 6: 1-4
No. 7: 1-4
No. 8: 1-0
No. 9: 0-1
No. 10: 1-3
No. 11: 2-3
No. 12: 0-5
No. 13: 0-2

In the Elite Eight
No. 1 seeds: 10-11
No. 2: 7-7
No. 3: 3-6
No. 4: 3-0
No. 5: 2-1
No. 6: 0-1
No. 7: 0-1
No. 8: 1-0
No. 10: 0-1
No. 11: 2-0

In the national semifinals
No. 1 seeds: 7-3 (includes two head-to-head games)
No. 2: 3-4 (includes one head-to-head game)
No. 3: 2-1
No. 4: 0-3
No. 5: 1-1 (includes one head-to-head game)
No. 8: 1-0
No. 11: 0-2

In the championship
No. 1 seeds: 5-2 (both losses were in head-to-head games)
No. 2: 0-3
No. 3: 2-0
No. 5: 0-1
No. 8: 0-1




- Howard Primer

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